• Mario Nicolais

A lack of polling in the Senate race could mean bad news for Cory Gardner

Numbers don’t lie, but they aren’t saying much about the Colorado U.S. Senate race, either.


With less than 90 days until the Nov. 3 election, the relative dearth of public polling in the U.S. Senate race could come as a shock to most political wonks and partisan activists. They are accustomed to regular updates throughout such a high-profile campaign.


Currently, RealClearPolitics currently does not have a single poll listed between Sen. Cory Gardner and former Gov. John Hickenlooper. The website typically acts as a clearinghouse for polls, aggregating and weighting the most recent to provide a broad picture of races. For example, the Maine U.S. Senate race displayed three polls taken in just over the past month with an RCP Average of +4.4 for Sara Gideon over the incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.


Likewise, the North Carolina U.S. Senate race returned four recent polls while the race in Arizona highlighted five. Even Montana had two significant polls to report.


The Colorado race does not do fare much better elsewhere. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight tracker listed a single recent poll in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race. It noted that Morning Consult – a pollster with a mediocre “B/C” grade from FiveThirtyEight – found Hickenlooper beating Gardner by six points.


Given that Gardner is one of the most vulnerable incumbent senators heading into 2020, it is astounding to see such an utter paucity of polling.



Read the rest of this column in The Colorado Sun.

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